The Dynamics of Small Business Development in Uzbekistan and Its Perspectives
Keywords:
small business, exponential smoothing, forecast, services, employment
Abstract
The article aims to highlight the dynamics of the development of small business in Uzbekistan and assess its perspectives. Services generated by small businesses account for more than one third of total exports, because of this we decided to forecast volume of services rendered by small businesses. The volume of services rendered by small businesses has been increasing exponentially, if the current favorable conditions remain unchanged, the growth is expected to continue and reach 1.27 quadrillion Uzbek soums in 2028.
References
[1] G. Selyanskaya, Y. Finogenova, and W. Strielkowski, “Factor Analysis of Economic Leadership Peculiarities of Countries and Regions Around the World,” 2018.
[2] OECD, “Entrepreneurship at a Glance 2023.” OECD Publishing, Paris, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.oecd.org/industry/entrepreneurship-at-a-glance.htm
[3] A. Fayziyeva, “Oʻzbekistonda kichik biznes va tadbirkorlik faoliyatini rivojlantirishning meʼyoriy-huquqiy asoslari,” Iqtisodiy Taraqqiyot Va Tahlil, no. 8, pp. 37–41, 2024.
[4] C. C. Holt, “Forecasting Trends and Seasonal by Exponentially Weighted Averages,” 1957.
[5] R. G. Brown, Exponential Smoothing for Predicting Demand. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Arthur D. Little Inc., 1956.
[6] R. G. Brown, Smoothing Forecasting and Prediction of Discrete Time Series. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1963.
[7] A. V. Oppenheim and R. W. Schafer, Digital Signal Processing. Prentice Hall, 1975.
[8] M. Z. Zohidov and S. A. Karimova, “Kichik biznesni rivojlantirishda zamonaviy boshqaruv usullari,” TDIU Ilmiy Axborotnomasi, no. 1, pp. 22–27, 2023.
[9] Statistical Agency of the Republic of Uzbekistan, “Small Business and Entrepreneurship Statistics - Entry 1.” 2024. [Online]. Available: https://stat.uz/uz/rasmiy-statistika/small-business-and-entrepreneurship-2
[10] World Bank, “Enterprise Surveys - Uzbekistan 2019: Finance.” 2019. [Online]. Available: https://www.enterprisesurveys.org/en/data/exploreeconomies/2019/uzbekistan#finance
[11] Statistical Agency of the Republic of Uzbekistan, “Statistical Agency Main Website.” 2024. [Online]. Available: http://stat.uz
[12] Statistical Agency of the Republic of Uzbekistan, “Small Business and Entrepreneurship Statistics - Entry 3.” 2024. [Online]. Available: https://stat.uz/uz/rasmiy-statistika/small-business-and-entrepreneurship-2
[13] UZDaily, “Labor Market in 2023: Trends and Forecasts of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan.” 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.uzdaily.uz/en/labor-market-in-2023-trends-and-forecasts-of-the-central-bank-of-uzbekistan/
[14] H. Akaike, “A new look at the statistical model identification,” IEEE Trans. Autom. Control, vol. 19, no. 6, pp. 716–723, 1974.
[15] G. E. P. Box, G. M. Jenkins, and G. C. Reinsel, Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, 4th ed. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley, 2008.
[2] OECD, “Entrepreneurship at a Glance 2023.” OECD Publishing, Paris, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.oecd.org/industry/entrepreneurship-at-a-glance.htm
[3] A. Fayziyeva, “Oʻzbekistonda kichik biznes va tadbirkorlik faoliyatini rivojlantirishning meʼyoriy-huquqiy asoslari,” Iqtisodiy Taraqqiyot Va Tahlil, no. 8, pp. 37–41, 2024.
[4] C. C. Holt, “Forecasting Trends and Seasonal by Exponentially Weighted Averages,” 1957.
[5] R. G. Brown, Exponential Smoothing for Predicting Demand. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Arthur D. Little Inc., 1956.
[6] R. G. Brown, Smoothing Forecasting and Prediction of Discrete Time Series. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1963.
[7] A. V. Oppenheim and R. W. Schafer, Digital Signal Processing. Prentice Hall, 1975.
[8] M. Z. Zohidov and S. A. Karimova, “Kichik biznesni rivojlantirishda zamonaviy boshqaruv usullari,” TDIU Ilmiy Axborotnomasi, no. 1, pp. 22–27, 2023.
[9] Statistical Agency of the Republic of Uzbekistan, “Small Business and Entrepreneurship Statistics - Entry 1.” 2024. [Online]. Available: https://stat.uz/uz/rasmiy-statistika/small-business-and-entrepreneurship-2
[10] World Bank, “Enterprise Surveys - Uzbekistan 2019: Finance.” 2019. [Online]. Available: https://www.enterprisesurveys.org/en/data/exploreeconomies/2019/uzbekistan#finance
[11] Statistical Agency of the Republic of Uzbekistan, “Statistical Agency Main Website.” 2024. [Online]. Available: http://stat.uz
[12] Statistical Agency of the Republic of Uzbekistan, “Small Business and Entrepreneurship Statistics - Entry 3.” 2024. [Online]. Available: https://stat.uz/uz/rasmiy-statistika/small-business-and-entrepreneurship-2
[13] UZDaily, “Labor Market in 2023: Trends and Forecasts of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan.” 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.uzdaily.uz/en/labor-market-in-2023-trends-and-forecasts-of-the-central-bank-of-uzbekistan/
[14] H. Akaike, “A new look at the statistical model identification,” IEEE Trans. Autom. Control, vol. 19, no. 6, pp. 716–723, 1974.
[15] G. E. P. Box, G. M. Jenkins, and G. C. Reinsel, Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, 4th ed. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley, 2008.
Published
2025-03-29
How to Cite
Mukhammadieva , N. (2025). The Dynamics of Small Business Development in Uzbekistan and Its Perspectives. Central Asian Journal of Innovations on Tourism Management and Finance, 6(2), 453-458. https://doi.org/10.51699/cajitmf.v6i2.876
Section
Articles
In submitting the manuscript to the Central Asian Journal of Innovations on Tourism Management and Finance, the authors certify that:
- They are authorized by their co-authors to enter into these arrangements.
- The work described has not been formally published before, except in the form of an abstract or as part of a published lecture, review, thesis, or overlay journal.
- That it is not under consideration for publication elsewhere,
- The publication has been approved by the author(s) and by responsible authorities – tacitly or explicitly – of the institutes where the work has been carried out.
- They secure the right to reproduce any material that has already been published or copyrighted elsewhere.
- They agree to the following license and copyright agreement.
License and Copyright Agreement
Authors who publish with Central Asian Journal of Innovations on Tourism Management and Finance agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the Central Asian Journal of Innovations on Tourism Management and Finance right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0) that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors can enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the Central Asian Journal of Innovations on Tourism Management and Finance published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or edit it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) before and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.
