Participation of Commercial Banks In Financing Foreign Trade Operations: Trends and Prospects
Abstract
This study investigates the trends and prospects of the participation of commercial banks in financing foreign trade operations. The overall corporate loan portfolio expanded nearly 5.7 times during the period, driven by structural reforms, government support programs, and improved credit conditions. Forecasts using the SARIMA and Holt-Winters models provide different perspectives: SARIMA anticipates a moderate and risk-sensitive growth path, while Holt-Winters projects a more optimistic scenario with rapid expansion, particularly from 2026 onwards. Both models suggest continued lending growth, but emphasize the importance of strategic planning. SARIMA highlights the need for risk mitigation amid economic uncertainties, whereas Holt-Winters supports a long-term view grounded in technological advancement, digitalization, and sustained policy support. The insights from both models will be crucial for policymakers and financial institutions to design balanced, forward-looking credit strategies that support sustainable economic development.
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